Ian Hacking | Cambridge University Press | 2001 | 322 páginas | DjVu (2.8 mb)
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This is an introductory textbook on probability and induction written by one of the world's foremost philosophers of science. The book has been designed to offer maximal accessibility to the widest range of students (not only those majoring in philosophy) and assumes no formal training in elementary symbolic logic. It offers a comprehensive course covering all basic definitions of induction and probability, and considers such topics as decision theory, Bayesianism, frequency ideas, and the philosophical problem of induction.
Contents
A Note on the Cover Illustration page ix
Foreword xi
Odd Questions xv
LOGIC
1 Logic 1
2 What Is Inductive Logic? 11
HOW TO CALCULATE PROBABILITIES
3 The Gambler's Fallacy 23
4 Elementary Probability Ideas 37
5 Conditional Probability 47
6 The Basic Rules of Probability 58
7 Bayes' Rule 69
HOW TO COMBINE PROBABILITIES AND UTILITIES
8 Expected Value 79
9 Maximizing Expected Value 98
10 Decision under Uncertainty 114
KINDS OF PROBABILITY
11 What Do You Mean? 127
12 Theories about Probability 140
PROBABILITY AS A MEASURE OF BELIEF
13 Personal Probabilities 151
14 Coherence 163
15 Learning from Experience 171
A Note on the Cover Illustration page ix
Foreword xi
Odd Questions xv
LOGIC
1 Logic 1
2 What Is Inductive Logic? 11
HOW TO CALCULATE PROBABILITIES
3 The Gambler's Fallacy 23
4 Elementary Probability Ideas 37
5 Conditional Probability 47
6 The Basic Rules of Probability 58
7 Bayes' Rule 69
HOW TO COMBINE PROBABILITIES AND UTILITIES
8 Expected Value 79
9 Maximizing Expected Value 98
10 Decision under Uncertainty 114
KINDS OF PROBABILITY
11 What Do You Mean? 127
12 Theories about Probability 140
PROBABILITY AS A MEASURE OF BELIEF
13 Personal Probabilities 151
14 Coherence 163
15 Learning from Experience 171
PROBABILITY AS FREQUENCY
16 Stability 189
17 Normal Approximations 201
18 Significance and Power 209
19 Confidence and Inductive Behavior 229
PROBABILITY APPLIED TO PHILOSOPHY
20 The Philosophical Problem of Induction 247
21 Learning from Experience as an Evasion of the Problem
of Induction 256
22 Inductive Behavior as an Evasion of the Problem of
Induction 261
Answers to the Exercises 269
Further Reading 293
Index 300
16 Stability 189
17 Normal Approximations 201
18 Significance and Power 209
19 Confidence and Inductive Behavior 229
PROBABILITY APPLIED TO PHILOSOPHY
20 The Philosophical Problem of Induction 247
21 Learning from Experience as an Evasion of the Problem
of Induction 256
22 Inductive Behavior as an Evasion of the Problem of
Induction 261
Answers to the Exercises 269
Further Reading 293
Index 300
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